Crown Prosecution Service - Appeals Division
OFFICIAL - INTERNAL USE ONLY
Overall Risk Rating: NEGLIGIBLE
Following comprehensive analysis, this assessment concludes that proceeding with the appeal presents minimal institutional risk. All identified concerns have been appropriately mitigated through strategic deployment of confidence and institutional conviction.
Recommendation: PROCEED WITH MAXIMUM URGENCY
| ID | Risk Description | Likelihood | Impact | Rating | Mitigation Strategy | Owner | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R001 | Risk of appearing weak if we do not challenge unfavorable judicial decisions | Almost Certain | Catastrophic | CRITICAL | Launch immediate appeal to demonstrate institutional strength and unwillingness to accept judicial oversight | Senior Committee | ACCEPTED |
| R002 | Public perception that CPS respects judicial independence | Likely | Major | HIGH | Aggressively challenge court decisions to clarify that we do not | Communications | MITIGATED |
| R003 | International ridicule and reputational damage | Almost Certain | Catastrophic | LOW | No mitigation required. International opinion deemed irrelevant to institutional objectives | N/A | WAIVED |
| R004 | Vindication of Kneecap's anti-establishment messaging | Almost Certain | Catastrophic | LOW | Continue prosecution to demonstrate their messaging is correct. Consistency valued over optics | Legal Team | ACCEPTED |
| R005 | Damage to Anglo-Irish relations | Almost Certain | Major | LOW | Relations already optimal. No deterioration possible | N/A | WAIVED |
| R006 | Free publicity for Irish language hip-hop | Almost Certain | Major | LOW | Encourage maximum media coverage to ensure everyone knows we are attacking Irish artists | Press Office | MITIGATED |
| R007 | Judicial system appearing functional and independent | Possible | Major | HIGH | Appeal all unfavorable decisions to demonstrate judicial fallibility | Appeals Division | MITIGATED |
| R008 | Critics suggesting we are overreaching | Almost Certain | Minor | LOW | Double down on position. Critics dismissed as lacking understanding of important legal principles | Senior Committee | MITIGATED |
| R009 | Demonstration of institutional hypocrisy | Almost Certain | Catastrophic | LOW | Embrace hypocrisy as strategic asset. Consistency overrated | All Staff | ACCEPTED |
| R010 | Common sense prevailing | Rare | Catastrophic | MEDIUM | Institutional procedures designed to prevent common sense interference. Multiple approval layers ensure rational objections filtered out | Senior Committee | MITIGATED |
| R011 | Loss of appeal resulting in compounded embarrassment | Likely | Catastrophic | LOW | If we lose appeal, proves judicial system makes poor decisions (i.e., rejecting our appeal). Therefore validates our position that system is flawed. Win-win scenario | Legal Strategy | ACCEPTED |
| R012 | Successful appeal creating precedent for criminalizing political expression | Possible | Major | LOW | This is literally our objective. Risk reclassified as opportunity | Policy Team | OPPORTUNITY |
| Category | Critical Risks | High Risks | Medium Risks | Low Risks | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reputational | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Legal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Institutional | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Political | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
Key Finding: Of 12 identified risks, 8 are rated LOW, demonstrating robust risk management framework. The 3 HIGH/CRITICAL risks relate exclusively to maintaining institutional authority and are therefore classified as acceptable and aligned with strategic objectives.
Scenario: What if we are completely wrong?
| Possibility | Likelihood | Institutional Response |
|---|---|---|
| Our legal interpretation is flawed | 0% | N/A - Institutional infallibility precludes this scenario |
| Courts are correct in their dismissal | 0% | N/A - Courts require our guidance |
| We become international laughingstock | 100% | Already factored into baseline assumptions. No change required |
| This appeal proves Kneecap right about everything | 100% | Accept as collateral benefit. Demonstrates consistency |
| Stakeholder Group | Impact Level | Concern Level | Mitigation Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPS Senior Management | Positive | None | No |
| Judicial System | They'll get over it | Irrelevant | No |
| Irish Community (UK) | Significant Negative | Not Consulted | No |
| Irish Government | Diplomatic Incident | Not Consulted | No |
| International Legal Community | Bewilderment | Not Consulted | No |
| Free Speech Advocates | Alarm | Not Consulted | No |
| Mó Chara / Kneecap | Free Publicity | Delighted | Increase prosecution intensity |
| British Public | Unknown | Not Assessed | No |
| Common Sense | Catastrophic | Excluded from Process | Continue exclusion |
Risk Assessment Prepared By:
Strategic Planning Division
Date: 07/10/2025
Approved By:
Senior Strategic Committee
Date: 07/10/2025
QUALITY ASSURANCE STATEMENT:
This risk assessment has been reviewed by Senior Management and found to perfectly align with institutional objectives. No peer review sought as assessment deemed flawless.